Scouting Report
Jamie Benn holds a +7.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Benn on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Benn wins 67.2% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Benn 59.9% vs O'Reilly 53.7% (+7.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Benn 78.5%
Defensive zone
Benn 69.5%
Neutral zone
Benn 64.7%
Result
Jamie Benn favored at 70.3%
70.3%
29.7%
Benn
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Benn
O'Reilly
Last 5: Benn 4-1 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Benn
1
0
Benn
O'Reilly
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Benn
2
1
Benn
O'Reilly
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Benn
1
0
Benn
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Benn
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
62.6% (479)
55.0% (1,084)
+7.6%
Power Play
58.4% (190)
56.8% (303)
+1.6%
Penalty Kill
58.1% (43)
40.3% (149)
+17.8%
On penalty kill, Benn has a +17.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Benn is 67.2% vs left-shot opponents (384).
Benn shoots left. O'Reilly is 54.0% vs left-shot opponents (981).
Home / Away
Benn
O'Reilly
Home
60.5% (349)
54.8% (759)
Away
62.0% (363)
53.0% (777)
By Period
Benn
O'Reilly
P1
60.8%
55.3%
P2
60.1%
51.9%
P3
62.4%
54.2%
OT
83.3%
64.7%
Final 5 min
62.4%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Benn
48.0%▼
52.5%
61.2%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
53.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 12, 2024 | 3 | 17:21 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 12, 2024 | 3 | 03:31 | Defensive | Jamie Benn |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 2 | 19:09 | Offensive | Jamie Benn |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 1 | 04:11 | Neutral | Jamie Benn |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 1 | 01:05 | Defensive | Jamie Benn |