Scouting Report
Jamie Benn holds a +10.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Benn on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Benn wins 55.6% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Benn 52.9% vs Novak 43.3% (+10.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Benn 86.0%
Defensive zone
Benn 88.2%
Neutral zone
Benn 86.9%
Result
Jamie Benn favored at 86.8%
86.8%
13.2%
Benn
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Benn
Novak
Last 7: Benn 5-2 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Benn
Novak
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Benn
1
0
Benn
Novak
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Benn
3
1
Benn
Novak
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Benn
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
53.5% (6,450)
42.1% (1,539)
+11.4%
Power Play
52.5% (2,054)
51.9% (133)
+0.6%
Penalty Kill
49.3% (515)
50.0% (2)
-0.7%
On even strength, Benn has a +11.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Benn is 55.6% vs left-shot opponents (5,269).
Benn shoots left. Novak is 43.2% vs left-shot opponents (1,078).
Home / Away
Benn
Novak
Home
54.9% (4,547)
45.3% (814)
Away
51.0% (4,488)
40.6% (860)
By Period
Benn
Novak
P1
51.9%
43.9%
P2
52.6%
42.8%
P3
54.0%
41.7%
OT
62.4%
66.7%
Final 5 min
53.6%
40.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Benn
48.0%▼
52.5%
53.0%
Novak
40.0%▼
42.0%
42.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 12, 2024 | 3 | 10:16 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Jan 12, 2024 | 3 | 10:29 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 2 | 07:02 | Defensive | Jamie Benn |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 2 | 03:30 | Neutral | Jamie Benn |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 1 | 10:01 | Neutral | Jamie Benn |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 1 | 07:21 | Neutral | Jamie Benn |
| Apr 3, 2023 | 2 | 10:20 | Offensive | Jamie Benn |