Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +7.7% FO% edge overall. Look for McCann on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). McCann wins 43.5% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McCann 46.2% vs Duchene 52.1% (-7.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 53.5%
Defensive zone
Duchene 55.0%
Neutral zone
Duchene 53.4%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 53.7%
46.3%
53.7%
McCann
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
McCann
Duchene
Last 6: McCann 3-3 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McCann
3
0
McCann
Duchene
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
1
McCann
Duchene
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
2
McCann
Duchene
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McCann
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
48.4% (188)
53.0% (723)
-4.6%
Power Play
33.3% (15)
49.5% (101)
-16.2%
Penalty Kill
31.7% (41)
43.8% (16)
-12.1%
On power play, Duchene has a +16.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. McCann is 43.5% vs left-shot opponents (168).
McCann shoots left. Duchene is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (517).
Home / Away
McCann
Duchene
Home
52.8% (125)
54.9% (408)
Away
36.1% (119)
50.0% (432)
By Period
McCann
Duchene
P1
37.7%
52.5%
P2
50.5%
51.7%
P3
45.2%
53.6%
OT
0.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
43.5%
53.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McCann
46.0%▬
45.0%
44.7%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2025 | 2 | 05:13 | Offensive | Jared McCann |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 3 | 01:06 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 2 | 13:07 | Offensive | Jared McCann |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 2 | 09:40 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 2 | 05:45 | Offensive | Jared McCann |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 1 | 01:07 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |