Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +11.4% FO% edge overall. Look for McCann on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 10 meetings). McCann wins 43.0% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McCann 43.0% vs Duchene 54.1% (-11.4%)
H2H factor
McCann leads 16-14 in 30 meetings
Offensive zone
Duchene 76.0%
Defensive zone
Duchene 71.6%
Neutral zone
Duchene 73.5%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 73.6%
26.4%
73.6%
McCann
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
16
-
14
(30 meetings)
16
14
McCann
Duchene
Last 10: McCann 5-5 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McCann
6
4
McCann
Duchene
10 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
5
6
McCann
Duchene
11 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McCann
5
4
McCann
Duchene
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McCann
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
43.1% (3,178)
53.9% (10,396)
-10.8%
Power Play
40.0% (260)
56.9% (1,665)
-16.9%
Penalty Kill
42.2% (173)
49.1% (468)
-6.9%
On power play, Duchene has a +16.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. McCann is 43.0% vs left-shot opponents (2,303).
McCann shoots left. Duchene is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (8,059).
Home / Away
McCann
Duchene
Home
43.1% (1,758)
55.6% (6,411)
Away
42.5% (1,855)
52.7% (6,142)
By Period
McCann
Duchene
P1
44.4%
54.5%
P2
41.7%
54.5%
P3
42.7%
53.4%
OT
36.4%
56.3%
Final 5 min
41.5%
53.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McCann
46.0%▬
45.0%
42.8%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2025 | 2 | 05:13 | Offensive | Jared McCann |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 3 | 01:06 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 2 | 13:07 | Offensive | Jared McCann |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 2 | 09:40 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 2 | 05:45 | Offensive | Jared McCann |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 1 | 01:07 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 13, 2024 | 3 | 13:23 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 13, 2024 | 2 | 19:23 | Neutral | Jared McCann |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 1 | 18:49 | Defensive | Jared McCann |
| Dec 28, 2019 | 3 | 08:49 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 28, 2019 | 3 | 06:30 | Defensive | Jared McCann |
| Dec 28, 2019 | 3 | 04:37 | Defensive | Jared McCann |
| Dec 27, 2019 | 3 | 06:29 | Offensive | Jared McCann |
| Dec 27, 2019 | 2 | 07:07 | Defensive | Jared McCann |
| Dec 27, 2019 | 1 | 17:58 | Defensive | Jared McCann |
| Mar 9, 2019 | 3 | 16:36 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 9, 2019 | 3 | 01:38 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 26, 2019 | 3 | 09:09 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 19, 2018 | 3 | 09:35 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 19, 2018 | 3 | 09:30 | Neutral | Jared McCann |