Scouting Report
Jason Dickinson holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Novak on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Dickinson wins 45.7% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dickinson 48.0% vs Novak 45.6% (+3.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Novak 56.9%
Defensive zone
Dickinson 74.3%
Neutral zone
Dickinson 57.9%
Result
Jason Dickinson favored at 58.2%
58.2%
41.8%
Dickinson
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Dickinson
Novak
Last 5: Dickinson 3-2 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Dickinson
1
0
Dickinson
Novak
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dickinson
1
0
Dickinson
Novak
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Novak
1
2
Dickinson
Novak
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dickinson
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
48.6% (626)
43.8% (384)
+4.8%
Power Play
44.0% (25)
58.8% (17)
-14.8%
Penalty Kill
44.2% (120)
100.0% (1)
-55.8%
On penalty kill, Novak has a +55.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Dickinson is 45.7% vs left-shot opponents (462).
Dickinson shoots left. Novak is 43.9% vs left-shot opponents (253).
Home / Away
Dickinson
Novak
Home
45.4% (368)
46.5% (202)
Away
49.9% (403)
42.5% (200)
By Period
Dickinson
Novak
P1
49.2%
49.2%
P2
46.3%
44.2%
P3
48.1%
40.0%
OT
44.4%
100.0%
Final 5 min
50.6%
52.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dickinson
50.0%▲
47.5%
47.7%
Novak
40.0%▼
42.0%
44.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2023 | 3 | 06:43 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 16, 2023 | 1 | 12:36 | Neutral | Jason Dickinson |
| Mar 4, 2023 | 3 | 08:27 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 4, 2023 | 3 | 04:28 | Defensive | Jason Dickinson |
| Dec 21, 2022 | 1 | 08:44 | Offensive | Jason Dickinson |