Scouting Report
Jason Dickinson holds a +4.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Novak on neutral-zone draws (70% H2H, 10 meetings). Dickinson wins 46.0% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dickinson 47.7% vs Novak 43.3% (+4.7%)
H2H factor
Novak leads 7-7 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Novak 79.4%
Defensive zone
Dickinson 80.9%
Neutral zone
Novak 50.9%
Result
Jason Dickinson favored at 53.9%
53.9%
46.1%
Dickinson
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
7
(14 meetings)
7
7
Dickinson
Novak
Last 10: Dickinson 4-6 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Dickinson
1
0
Dickinson
Novak
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dickinson
3
0
Dickinson
Novak
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Novak
3
7
Dickinson
Novak
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dickinson
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
49.0% (4,363)
42.1% (1,539)
+6.9%
Power Play
51.1% (141)
51.9% (133)
-0.8%
Penalty Kill
40.5% (884)
50.0% (2)
-9.5%
On penalty kill, Novak has a +9.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Dickinson is 46.0% vs left-shot opponents (3,448).
Dickinson shoots left. Novak is 43.2% vs left-shot opponents (1,078).
Home / Away
Dickinson
Novak
Home
49.3% (2,779)
45.3% (814)
Away
45.9% (2,609)
40.6% (860)
By Period
Dickinson
Novak
P1
46.9%
43.9%
P2
48.1%
42.8%
P3
47.8%
41.7%
OT
52.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
48.5%
40.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dickinson
50.0%▲
47.5%
47.6%
Novak
40.0%▼
42.0%
42.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 07:29 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 15:01 | Defensive | Jason Dickinson |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 00:56 | Neutral | Jason Dickinson |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 01:12 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Dec 28, 2025 | 3 | 19:59 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 1 | 12:17 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Apr 12, 2024 | 3 | 16:37 | Defensive | Jason Dickinson |
| Apr 12, 2024 | 2 | 02:52 | Neutral | Jason Dickinson |
| Jan 2, 2024 | 2 | 08:44 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 16, 2023 | 3 | 06:43 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 16, 2023 | 1 | 12:36 | Neutral | Jason Dickinson |
| Mar 4, 2023 | 3 | 08:27 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 4, 2023 | 3 | 04:28 | Defensive | Jason Dickinson |
| Dec 21, 2022 | 1 | 08:44 | Offensive | Jason Dickinson |