Scouting Report
Jason Dickinson holds a +7.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Novak on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Dickinson wins 46.5% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dickinson 49.6% vs Novak 43.4% (+7.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Novak 85.7%
Defensive zone
Dickinson 80.8%
Neutral zone
Novak 55.9%
Result
Jason Dickinson favored at 51.4%
51.4%
48.6%
Dickinson
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Dickinson
Novak
Last 5: Dickinson 2-3 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dickinson
1
0
Dickinson
Novak
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Novak
1
3
Dickinson
Novak
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dickinson
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
51.8% (643)
41.4% (379)
+10.4%
Power Play
66.7% (9)
46.9% (32)
+19.8%
On power play, Dickinson has a +19.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Dickinson is 46.5% vs left-shot opponents (542).
Dickinson shoots left. Novak is 41.7% vs left-shot opponents (271).
Home / Away
Dickinson
Novak
Home
48.7% (419)
42.6% (195)
Away
50.4% (383)
41.2% (216)
By Period
Dickinson
Novak
P1
42.6%
42.4%
P2
55.0%
39.2%
P3
50.0%
44.7%
OT
60.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
44.1%
40.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dickinson
50.0%▲
47.5%
49.5%
Novak
40.0%▼
42.0%
41.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 07:29 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 15:01 | Defensive | Jason Dickinson |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 00:56 | Neutral | Jason Dickinson |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 01:12 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Dec 28, 2025 | 3 | 19:59 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |