Dylan Larkin vs Jean-Gabriel Pageau
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Jean-Gabriel Pageau holds a +7.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Pageau on defensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.4% vs Pageau 58.8% (-7.1%)
H2H factor
Pageau leads 10-4 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 79.9%
Defensive zone
Larkin 71.8%
Neutral zone
Larkin 69.6%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 73.7%
73.7%
26.3%
Larkin
Pageau
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
10
(14 meetings)
4
10
Larkin
Pageau
Last 10: Larkin 4-6 Pageau
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Larkin
Pageau
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
1
6
Larkin
Pageau
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pageau
1
2
Larkin
Pageau
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Pageau
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (878)
59.1% (687)
-7.4%
Power Play
58.5% (246)
69.4% (36)
-10.9%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (166)
60.1% (213)
-11.9%
On penalty kill, Pageau has a +11.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pageau shoots right. Larkin is 51.2% vs right-shot opponents (451).
Larkin shoots left. Pageau is 60.5% vs left-shot opponents (691).
Home / Away
Larkin
Pageau
Home
52.4% (647)
57.8% (377)
Away
52.7% (643)
61.0% (559)
By Period
Larkin
Pageau
P1
52.2%
54.1%
P2
53.1%
62.1%
P3
51.7%
61.8%
OT
61.3%
75.0%
Final 5 min
55.2%
63.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.6%
Pageau
54.0%▼
57.5%
59.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 03:17 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 3 | 15:52 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 3 | 15:45 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 3 | 13:16 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 3 | 09:04 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 3 | 01:20 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 2 | 19:43 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 2 | 17:09 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 3 | 08:30 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 3 | 01:25 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 2 | 17:14 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 2 | 10:10 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 1 | 18:36 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 1 | 13:06 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |