Jean-Gabriel Pageau vs Matt Duchene
2023-24 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. Pageau wins 55.6% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pageau 55.0% vs Duchene 55.6% (-1.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 70.1%
Defensive zone
Pageau 78.7%
Neutral zone
Duchene 53.8%
Result
Jean-Gabriel Pageau favored at 52.7%
52.7%
47.3%
Pageau
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Pageau
Duchene
Last 5: Pageau 2-3 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
2
Pageau
Duchene
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Pageau
Duchene
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pageau
1
0
Pageau
Duchene
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pageau
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
57.1% (905)
56.5% (566)
+0.6%
Power Play
55.2% (116)
61.3% (62)
-6.1%
Penalty Kill
48.0% (204)
22.2% (9)
+25.8%
On penalty kill, Pageau has a +25.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Pageau is 55.6% vs left-shot opponents (880).
Pageau shoots right. Duchene is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (251).
Home / Away
Pageau
Duchene
Home
57.0% (618)
56.6% (318)
Away
53.9% (607)
56.4% (319)
By Period
Pageau
Duchene
P1
54.4%
57.2%
P2
61.0%
55.1%
P3
51.0%
55.6%
OT
50.0%
81.3%
Final 5 min
53.8%
47.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pageau
54.0%▼
57.5%
55.4%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
56.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Feb 26, 2024 | 2 | 14:17 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 26, 2024 | 1 | 17:34 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 26, 2024 | 1 | 02:38 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 21, 2024 | 1 | 05:17 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |