Scouting Report
Jean-Gabriel Pageau holds a +5.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Pageau on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Pageau wins 60.7% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pageau 58.9% vs Paul 53.6% (+5.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Paul 54.8%
Defensive zone
Pageau 71.6%
Neutral zone
Pageau 73.0%
Result
Jean-Gabriel Pageau favored at 50.5%
50.5%
49.5%
Pageau
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Pageau
Paul
Last 5: Pageau 3-2 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
3
1
Pageau
Paul
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
0
1
Pageau
Paul
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pageau
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
59.5% (676)
53.8% (318)
+5.7%
Power Play
67.6% (34)
61.4% (57)
+6.2%
Penalty Kill
60.1% (213)
50.0% (32)
+10.1%
On penalty kill, Pageau has a +10.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Pageau is 60.7% vs left-shot opponents (680).
Pageau shoots right. Paul is 55.5% vs right-shot opponents (110).
Home / Away
Pageau
Paul
Home
58.2% (364)
54.6% (183)
Away
61.0% (559)
54.5% (224)
By Period
Pageau
Paul
P1
54.4%
57.0%
P2
62.3%
56.2%
P3
62.0%
51.7%
OT
75.0%
44.4%
Final 5 min
63.2%
60.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pageau
58.0%▼
59.5%
59.9%
Paul
58.0%▲
54.0%
54.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 13, 2025 | 3 | 19:44 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 3 | 07:32 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 3 | 04:01 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 13:44 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 13:34 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |