Scouting Report
Jean-Gabriel Pageau holds a +4.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Pageau on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Pageau wins 56.3% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pageau 55.0% vs Paul 50.4% (+4.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pageau 89.7%
Defensive zone
Pageau 72.9%
Neutral zone
Pageau 79.3%
Result
Jean-Gabriel Pageau favored at 81.1%
81.1%
18.9%
Pageau
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
2
(9 meetings)
7
2
Pageau
Paul
Last 9: Pageau 7-2 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
3
1
Pageau
Paul
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
4
0
Pageau
Paul
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Paul
0
1
Pageau
Paul
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pageau
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
55.8% (1,000)
53.0% (644)
+2.8%
Power Play
56.6% (182)
37.5% (24)
+19.1%
Penalty Kill
51.2% (170)
42.9% (177)
+8.3%
On power play, Pageau has a +19.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Pageau is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (983).
Pageau shoots right. Paul is 47.2% vs right-shot opponents (386).
Home / Away
Pageau
Paul
Home
57.1% (674)
52.5% (516)
Away
53.5% (678)
47.1% (329)
By Period
Pageau
Paul
P1
56.9%
47.6%
P2
54.5%
48.4%
P3
54.7%
54.5%
OT
52.9%
100.0%
Final 5 min
55.3%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pageau
54.0%▼
57.5%
55.3%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
50.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 29, 2022 | 3 | 18:22 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Apr 29, 2022 | 3 | 18:15 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Apr 29, 2022 | 3 | 11:13 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Mar 27, 2022 | 3 | 17:33 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 27, 2022 | 1 | 06:46 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Feb 1, 2022 | 2 | 04:50 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Feb 1, 2022 | 1 | 16:09 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Feb 1, 2022 | 1 | 08:52 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Dec 7, 2021 | 2 | 07:12 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |