Scouting Report
Jean-Gabriel Pageau holds a +9.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Pageau on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Pageau wins 61.2% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pageau 58.7% vs Paul 50.0% (+9.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pageau 85.9%
Defensive zone
Pageau 84.8%
Neutral zone
Pageau 84.5%
Result
Jean-Gabriel Pageau favored at 85.4%
85.4%
14.6%
Pageau
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Pageau
Paul
Last 7: Pageau 5-2 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
3
1
Pageau
Paul
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
1
0
Pageau
Paul
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Pageau
Paul
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pageau
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
59.6% (711)
48.8% (666)
+10.8%
Power Play
64.0% (114)
53.8% (65)
+10.2%
Penalty Kill
56.4% (163)
60.0% (55)
-3.6%
On even strength, Pageau has a +10.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Pageau is 61.2% vs left-shot opponents (763).
Pageau shoots right. Paul is 45.7% vs right-shot opponents (243).
Home / Away
Pageau
Paul
Home
59.3% (506)
49.7% (348)
Away
60.0% (482)
50.2% (438)
By Period
Pageau
Paul
P1
56.8%
51.0%
P2
64.4%
47.4%
P3
56.9%
51.5%
OT
75.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
61.1%
53.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pageau
54.0%▼
57.5%
59.6%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
50.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1, 2025 | 3 | 18:00 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Apr 1, 2025 | 3 | 17:56 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Apr 1, 2025 | 2 | 10:41 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Apr 1, 2025 | 2 | 07:21 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Apr 1, 2025 | 1 | 10:57 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Feb 1, 2025 | 2 | 06:52 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Feb 1, 2025 | 2 | 04:51 | Offensive | Nick Paul |