Scouting Report
Jean-Gabriel Pageau holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Paul on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Pageau wins 55.6% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pageau 55.0% vs Paul 53.9% (+1.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Paul 64.5%
Defensive zone
Pageau 78.3%
Neutral zone
Pageau 61.3%
Result
Jean-Gabriel Pageau favored at 53.6%
53.6%
46.4%
Pageau
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Pageau
Paul
Last 9: Pageau 5-4 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Pageau
Paul
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
2
0
Pageau
Paul
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Paul
1
2
Pageau
Paul
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pageau
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
57.1% (905)
53.1% (710)
+4.0%
Power Play
55.2% (116)
57.3% (199)
-2.1%
Penalty Kill
48.0% (204)
58.0% (69)
-10.0%
On penalty kill, Paul has a +10.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Pageau is 55.6% vs left-shot opponents (880).
Pageau shoots right. Paul is 47.6% vs right-shot opponents (355).
Home / Away
Pageau
Paul
Home
57.0% (618)
56.0% (466)
Away
53.9% (607)
52.7% (512)
By Period
Pageau
Paul
P1
54.4%
57.2%
P2
61.0%
54.9%
P3
51.0%
51.5%
OT
50.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
53.8%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pageau
54.0%▼
57.5%
55.4%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2024 | 3 | 11:52 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 2 | 12:24 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 1 | 15:18 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 1 | 12:32 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 1 | 09:43 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 1 | 03:47 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 2 | 03:47 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Feb 8, 2024 | 3 | 06:53 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Feb 8, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Paul |