Scouting Report
Jean-Gabriel Pageau holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Paul on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Pageau wins 57.2% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pageau 56.7% vs Paul 53.4% (+3.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pageau 59.7%
Defensive zone
Pageau 73.6%
Neutral zone
Pageau 63.4%
Result
Jean-Gabriel Pageau favored at 67.8%
67.8%
32.2%
Pageau
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Pageau
Paul
Last 9: Pageau 5-4 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Paul
1
2
Pageau
Paul
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
3
2
Pageau
Paul
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pageau
1
0
Pageau
Paul
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pageau
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
58.8% (889)
53.8% (753)
+5.0%
Power Play
58.2% (182)
58.9% (90)
-0.7%
Penalty Kill
48.6% (185)
47.4% (78)
+1.2%
On even strength, Pageau has a +5.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Pageau is 57.2% vs left-shot opponents (880).
Pageau shoots right. Paul is 49.4% vs right-shot opponents (342).
Home / Away
Pageau
Paul
Home
59.0% (595)
54.2% (450)
Away
55.7% (661)
53.3% (471)
By Period
Pageau
Paul
P1
58.9%
58.2%
P2
57.9%
50.6%
P3
55.6%
52.9%
OT
44.4%
50.0%
Final 5 min
56.0%
49.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pageau
54.0%▼
57.5%
57.2%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
53.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2023 | 2 | 19:40 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Apr 6, 2023 | 1 | 12:49 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Apr 1, 2023 | 2 | 13:54 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Apr 1, 2023 | 2 | 04:40 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Apr 1, 2023 | 1 | 14:22 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 3 | 18:44 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 2 | 11:34 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 1 | 19:58 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 1 | 11:52 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |