Jean-Gabriel Pageau vs Sebastian Aho
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Jean-Gabriel Pageau holds a +9.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Pageau wins 61.8% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pageau 58.8% vs Aho 50.4% (+9.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 70.1%
Defensive zone
Pageau 80.0%
Neutral zone
Pageau 52.6%
Result
Jean-Gabriel Pageau favored at 54.9%
54.9%
45.1%
Pageau
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Pageau
Aho
Last 8: Pageau 4-4 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
1
3
Pageau
Aho
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
3
1
Pageau
Aho
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pageau
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
59.2% (502)
50.5% (647)
+8.7%
Power Play
69.6% (23)
54.2% (131)
+15.4%
Penalty Kill
61.3% (163)
38.1% (42)
+23.2%
On penalty kill, Pageau has a +23.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Pageau is 61.8% vs left-shot opponents (502).
Pageau shoots right. Aho is 56.1% vs right-shot opponents (289).
Home / Away
Pageau
Aho
Home
59.5% (299)
53.9% (445)
Away
60.4% (389)
46.4% (375)
By Period
Pageau
Aho
P1
55.3%
48.7%
P2
62.2%
51.4%
P3
61.1%
50.8%
OT
80.0%
58.8%
Final 5 min
62.4%
49.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pageau
72.0%▲
62.5%
60.0%
Aho
54.0%▼
56.5%
50.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 2025 | 3 | 10:29 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 3 | 10:17 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 2 | 01:52 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 2 | 01:45 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 2 | 01:09 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 1 | 19:47 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 1 | 19:32 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 1 | 16:02 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |