Jean-Gabriel Pageau vs Sebastian Aho
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Jean-Gabriel Pageau holds a +9.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Pageau wins 60.5% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pageau 58.8% vs Aho 50.0% (+9.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 66.5%
Defensive zone
Pageau 78.8%
Neutral zone
Pageau 53.4%
Result
Jean-Gabriel Pageau favored at 56.2%
56.2%
43.8%
Pageau
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Pageau
Aho
Last 8: Pageau 4-4 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
1
3
Pageau
Aho
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
3
1
Pageau
Aho
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pageau
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
59.1% (687)
49.9% (851)
+9.2%
Power Play
69.4% (36)
53.5% (144)
+15.9%
Penalty Kill
60.1% (213)
43.3% (60)
+16.8%
On penalty kill, Pageau has a +16.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Pageau is 60.5% vs left-shot opponents (691).
Pageau shoots right. Aho is 55.5% vs right-shot opponents (364).
Home / Away
Pageau
Aho
Home
57.8% (377)
53.2% (554)
Away
61.0% (559)
46.5% (501)
By Period
Pageau
Aho
P1
54.1%
49.1%
P2
62.1%
50.8%
P3
61.8%
49.7%
OT
75.0%
58.8%
Final 5 min
63.1%
49.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pageau
54.0%▼
57.5%
59.7%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
50.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 2025 | 3 | 10:29 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 3 | 10:17 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 2 | 01:52 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 2 | 01:45 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 2 | 01:09 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 1 | 19:47 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 1 | 19:32 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 1 | 16:02 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |