Jean-Gabriel Pageau vs Sebastian Aho
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Jean-Gabriel Pageau holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on offensive-zone draws (85% H2H, 39 meetings). Pageau wins 55.6% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pageau 54.8% vs Aho 51.2% (+3.5%)
H2H factor
Pageau leads 52-43 in 95 meetings
Offensive zone
Pageau 50.6%
Defensive zone
Pageau 90.5%
Neutral zone
Pageau 76.8%
Result
Jean-Gabriel Pageau favored at 71.7%
71.7%
28.3%
Pageau
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
52
-
43
(95 meetings)
52
43
Pageau
Aho
Last 10: Pageau 5-5 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
6
33
Pageau
Aho
39 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
33
6
Pageau
Aho
39 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pageau
13
4
Pageau
Aho
17 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pageau
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
55.7% (9,486)
50.1% (6,619)
+5.6%
Power Play
57.0% (1,002)
58.9% (1,310)
-1.9%
Penalty Kill
49.6% (2,069)
46.3% (464)
+3.3%
On even strength, Pageau has a +5.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Pageau is 55.6% vs left-shot opponents (8,837).
Pageau shoots right. Aho is 51.7% vs right-shot opponents (3,088).
Home / Away
Pageau
Aho
Home
56.3% (6,214)
52.4% (4,308)
Away
53.4% (6,343)
50.1% (4,085)
By Period
Pageau
Aho
P1
54.6%
51.1%
P2
56.3%
52.0%
P3
53.5%
50.7%
OT
54.4%
48.9%
Final 5 min
53.9%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pageau
54.0%▼
57.5%
54.8%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 2025 | 3 | 10:29 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 3 | 10:17 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 2 | 01:52 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 2 | 01:45 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 2 | 01:09 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 1 | 19:47 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 1 | 19:32 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 1 | 16:02 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 30, 2025 | 3 | 07:23 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 30, 2025 | 3 | 01:51 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 30, 2025 | 1 | 16:53 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 30, 2025 | 1 | 08:52 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 30, 2025 | 1 | 05:52 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 30, 2025 | 1 | 01:57 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 30, 2025 | 1 | 01:30 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 2 | 01:05 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Dec 17, 2024 | 3 | 01:33 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Dec 17, 2024 | 2 | 19:03 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Dec 17, 2024 | 2 | 05:28 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 17, 2024 | 2 | 01:48 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |