Jean-Gabriel Pageau vs Tomas Hertl
2024-25 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Jean-Gabriel Pageau holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Pageau on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Pageau wins 61.2% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pageau 58.7% vs Hertl 55.4% (+3.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 63.5%
Defensive zone
Pageau 82.6%
Neutral zone
Pageau 67.5%
Result
Jean-Gabriel Pageau favored at 71.1%
71.1%
28.9%
Pageau
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Pageau
Hertl
Last 8: Pageau 5-3 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Pageau
Hertl
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
3
1
Pageau
Hertl
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pageau
2
1
Pageau
Hertl
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pageau
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
59.6% (711)
54.1% (717)
+5.5%
Power Play
64.0% (114)
61.9% (210)
+2.1%
Penalty Kill
56.4% (163)
58.1% (31)
-1.7%
On even strength, Pageau has a +5.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Pageau is 61.2% vs left-shot opponents (763).
Pageau shoots right. Hertl is 56.6% vs right-shot opponents (362).
Home / Away
Pageau
Hertl
Home
59.3% (506)
58.1% (492)
Away
60.0% (482)
53.6% (466)
By Period
Pageau
Hertl
P1
56.8%
57.1%
P2
64.4%
54.0%
P3
56.9%
56.6%
OT
75.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
61.1%
53.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pageau
54.0%▼
57.5%
59.6%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
55.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 4, 2025 | 3 | 09:45 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 3 | 07:40 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 2 | 12:37 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 2 | 12:22 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 2 | 01:53 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 9, 2025 | 3 | 11:11 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 9, 2025 | 1 | 13:35 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Jan 9, 2025 | 1 | 12:46 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |