Jean-Gabriel Pageau vs Tomas Hertl
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Jean-Gabriel Pageau holds a +1.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Pageau on defensive-zone draws (89% H2H, 9 meetings). Pageau wins 60.5% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pageau 58.8% vs Hertl 57.2% (+1.9%)
H2H factor
Pageau leads 13-7 in 20 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 75.8%
Defensive zone
Pageau 85.9%
Neutral zone
Pageau 58.9%
Result
Jean-Gabriel Pageau favored at 55.5%
55.5%
44.5%
Pageau
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
13
-
7
(20 meetings)
13
7
Pageau
Hertl
Last 10: Pageau 5-5 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
3
6
Pageau
Hertl
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
8
1
Pageau
Hertl
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pageau
2
0
Pageau
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pageau
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
59.1% (687)
58.1% (823)
+1.0%
Power Play
69.4% (36)
56.2% (265)
+13.2%
Penalty Kill
60.1% (213)
62.9% (35)
-2.8%
On power play, Pageau has a +13.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Pageau is 60.5% vs left-shot opponents (691).
Pageau shoots right. Hertl is 59.6% vs right-shot opponents (433).
Home / Away
Pageau
Hertl
Home
57.8% (377)
59.7% (561)
Away
61.0% (559)
55.9% (562)
By Period
Pageau
Hertl
P1
54.1%
51.6%
P2
62.1%
63.8%
P3
61.8%
58.6%
OT
75.0%
28.6%
Final 5 min
63.1%
58.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pageau
54.0%▼
57.5%
59.7%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 9, 2025 | OT | 01:34 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 19:56 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 19:34 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 17:39 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 2 | 08:19 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 2 | 07:44 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 1 | 10:54 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 1 | 10:13 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 1 | 09:37 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 1 | 07:32 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 1 | 07:26 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 1 | 03:45 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 13, 2025 | OT | 02:54 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 3 | 00:39 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 2 | 14:48 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 2 | 04:25 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 1 | 17:59 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 1 | 14:03 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 1 | 09:48 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 1 | 02:04 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |