Jean-Gabriel Pageau vs Tomas Hertl
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.8% vs 54.2%). Look for Pageau on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 28 meetings). Pageau wins 55.6% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pageau 54.8% vs Hertl 54.2% (+0.6%)
H2H factor
Pageau leads 39-33 in 72 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 68.6%
Defensive zone
Pageau 78.6%
Neutral zone
Pageau 56.3%
Result
Jean-Gabriel Pageau favored at 54.2%
54.2%
45.8%
Pageau
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
39
-
33
(72 meetings)
39
33
Pageau
Hertl
Last 10: Pageau 5-5 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
11
20
Pageau
Hertl
31 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
21
7
Pageau
Hertl
28 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pageau
7
6
Pageau
Hertl
13 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pageau
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
55.7% (9,486)
53.8% (8,268)
+1.9%
Power Play
57.0% (1,002)
59.3% (1,975)
-2.3%
Penalty Kill
49.6% (2,069)
46.3% (806)
+3.3%
On penalty kill, Pageau has a +3.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Pageau is 55.6% vs left-shot opponents (8,837).
Pageau shoots right. Hertl is 56.8% vs right-shot opponents (4,133).
Home / Away
Pageau
Hertl
Home
56.3% (6,214)
55.7% (5,344)
Away
53.4% (6,343)
52.8% (5,705)
By Period
Pageau
Hertl
P1
54.6%
53.6%
P2
56.3%
54.1%
P3
53.5%
55.3%
OT
54.4%
46.5%
Final 5 min
53.9%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pageau
54.0%▼
57.5%
54.8%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 9, 2025 | OT | 01:34 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 19:56 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 19:34 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 17:39 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 2 | 08:19 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 2 | 07:44 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 1 | 10:54 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 1 | 10:13 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 1 | 09:37 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 1 | 07:32 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 1 | 07:26 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 1 | 03:45 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 13, 2025 | OT | 02:54 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 3 | 00:39 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 2 | 14:48 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 2 | 04:25 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 1 | 17:59 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 1 | 14:03 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 1 | 09:48 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 1 | 02:04 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |