Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (51.5% vs 52.3%). Look for Eller on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kotkaniemi 51.3% vs Eller 52.0% (-0.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kotkaniemi 80.0%
Defensive zone
Eller 76.6%
Neutral zone
Kotkaniemi 54.6%
Result
Lars Eller favored at 57.8%
42.2%
57.8%
Kotkaniemi
Eller
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Kotkaniemi
Eller
Last 8: Kotkaniemi 3-5 Eller
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kotkaniemi
1
0
Kotkaniemi
Eller
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Eller
1
3
Kotkaniemi
Eller
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Eller
1
2
Kotkaniemi
Eller
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kotkaniemi
Eller
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (586)
52.8% (742)
-1.1%
Power Play
48.1% (52)
67.6% (34)
-19.5%
Penalty Kill
62.5% (8)
46.2% (156)
+16.3%
On power play, Eller has a +19.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Eller shoots left. Kotkaniemi is 51.6% vs left-shot opponents (463).
Kotkaniemi shoots left. Eller is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (599).
Home / Away
Kotkaniemi
Eller
Home
49.5% (313)
54.5% (448)
Away
53.5% (333)
50.2% (484)
By Period
Kotkaniemi
Eller
P1
54.5%
52.8%
P2
51.1%
50.9%
P3
49.0%
53.4%
Final 5 min
50.0%
55.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kotkaniemi
52.0%▲
49.0%
51.5%
Eller
50.0%▼
54.0%
52.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2024 | 3 | 17:06 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 3 | 19:07 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 2 | 04:33 | Defensive | Jesperi Kotkaniemi |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 2 | 01:25 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 2 | 02:42 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Nov 18, 2023 | 2 | 01:41 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Nov 18, 2023 | 1 | 06:35 | Offensive | Jesperi Kotkaniemi |
| Nov 18, 2023 | 1 | 04:51 | Neutral | Jesperi Kotkaniemi |