Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall. Kotkaniemi wins 45.0% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kotkaniemi 50.9% vs Dowd 53.3% (-2.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kotkaniemi 86.4%
Defensive zone
Dowd 70.6%
Neutral zone
Kotkaniemi 52.4%
Result
Jesperi Kotkaniemi favored at 50.0%
50.0%
50.0%
Kotkaniemi
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Kotkaniemi
Dowd
Last 5: Kotkaniemi 1-4 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kotkaniemi
1
0
Kotkaniemi
Dowd
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
2
Kotkaniemi
Dowd
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
2
Kotkaniemi
Dowd
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kotkaniemi
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
49.8% (309)
55.4% (771)
-5.6%
Power Play
64.5% (31)
57.1% (7)
+7.4%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (4)
45.5% (165)
+4.5%
On power play, Kotkaniemi has a +7.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Kotkaniemi is 45.0% vs right-shot opponents (131).
Kotkaniemi shoots left. Dowd is 53.9% vs left-shot opponents (621).
Home / Away
Kotkaniemi
Dowd
Home
51.7% (203)
58.2% (462)
Away
50.4% (141)
49.3% (481)
By Period
Kotkaniemi
Dowd
P1
49.5%
55.6%
P2
50.4%
50.5%
P3
53.8%
53.9%
Final 5 min
55.1%
53.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kotkaniemi
52.0%▲
48.0%
51.2%
Dowd
48.0%▼
54.0%
53.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2022 | 2 | 15:03 | Offensive | Jesperi Kotkaniemi |
| Mar 18, 2022 | 2 | 14:48 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 18, 2022 | 2 | 07:13 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 18, 2022 | 2 | 07:06 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 3, 2022 | 2 | 15:27 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |