Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Kotkaniemi on offensive-zone draws (92% H2H, 12 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kotkaniemi 49.2% vs Dowd 50.7% (-1.5%)
H2H factor
Dowd leads 20-17 in 37 meetings
Offensive zone
Kotkaniemi 78.8%
Defensive zone
Dowd 55.9%
Neutral zone
Dowd 51.4%
Result
Jesperi Kotkaniemi favored at 57.2%
57.2%
42.8%
Kotkaniemi
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
17
-
20
(37 meetings)
17
20
Kotkaniemi
Dowd
Last 10: Kotkaniemi 6-4 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kotkaniemi
11
1
Kotkaniemi
Dowd
12 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
10
Kotkaniemi
Dowd
10 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
6
9
Kotkaniemi
Dowd
15 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kotkaniemi
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
49.0% (3,852)
52.4% (6,009)
-3.4%
Power Play
51.3% (351)
56.1% (164)
-4.8%
Penalty Kill
45.7% (35)
44.1% (1,635)
+1.6%
On power play, Dowd has a +4.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Kotkaniemi is 47.5% vs right-shot opponents (1,454).
Kotkaniemi shoots left. Dowd is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (5,134).
Home / Away
Kotkaniemi
Dowd
Home
49.7% (2,197)
51.9% (3,897)
Away
48.7% (2,041)
49.5% (3,912)
By Period
Kotkaniemi
Dowd
P1
49.9%
51.7%
P2
50.4%
50.4%
P3
47.2%
50.3%
OT
50.0%
45.9%
Final 5 min
49.6%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kotkaniemi
52.0%▲
49.0%
49.2%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
50.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11, 2025 | 3 | 05:46 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 3 | 03:54 | Neutral | Jesperi Kotkaniemi |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 3 | 00:44 | Offensive | Jesperi Kotkaniemi |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 2 | 15:45 | Neutral | Jesperi Kotkaniemi |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 2 | 15:32 | Neutral | Jesperi Kotkaniemi |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 2 | 15:24 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 2, 2025 | 3 | 11:39 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 20, 2024 | 3 | 17:52 | Offensive | Jesperi Kotkaniemi |
| Dec 20, 2024 | 3 | 12:59 | Neutral | Jesperi Kotkaniemi |
| Dec 20, 2024 | 3 | 10:22 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 20, 2024 | 2 | 16:11 | Neutral | Jesperi Kotkaniemi |
| Nov 3, 2024 | 3 | 14:26 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 3, 2024 | 3 | 05:35 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 3, 2024 | 3 | 02:41 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 3, 2024 | 1 | 08:55 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 5, 2024 | 3 | 09:25 | Offensive | Jesperi Kotkaniemi |
| Mar 22, 2024 | 2 | 02:49 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 5, 2024 | 2 | 07:42 | Offensive | Jesperi Kotkaniemi |
| Jan 5, 2024 | 1 | 12:06 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 17, 2023 | 3 | 06:14 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |