Scouting Report
Jesperi Kotkaniemi holds a +3.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kotkaniemi 51.3% vs Dowd 48.3% (+3.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kotkaniemi 86.0%
Defensive zone
Dowd 93.4%
Neutral zone
Dowd 58.1%
Result
Jesperi Kotkaniemi favored at 50.7%
50.7%
49.3%
Kotkaniemi
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Kotkaniemi
Dowd
Last 8: Kotkaniemi 3-5 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kotkaniemi
3
1
Kotkaniemi
Dowd
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
3
Kotkaniemi
Dowd
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
1
Kotkaniemi
Dowd
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kotkaniemi
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (586)
49.2% (778)
+2.5%
Power Play
48.1% (52)
58.3% (12)
-10.2%
Penalty Kill
62.5% (8)
44.0% (234)
+18.5%
On penalty kill, Kotkaniemi has a +18.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Kotkaniemi is 51.4% vs right-shot opponents (183).
Kotkaniemi shoots left. Dowd is 48.0% vs left-shot opponents (698).
Home / Away
Kotkaniemi
Dowd
Home
49.5% (313)
46.3% (492)
Away
53.5% (333)
49.8% (532)
By Period
Kotkaniemi
Dowd
P1
54.5%
49.1%
P2
51.1%
48.2%
P3
49.0%
46.9%
Final 5 min
50.0%
45.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kotkaniemi
52.0%▲
49.0%
51.5%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
48.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 5, 2024 | 3 | 09:25 | Offensive | Jesperi Kotkaniemi |
| Mar 22, 2024 | 2 | 02:49 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 5, 2024 | 2 | 07:42 | Offensive | Jesperi Kotkaniemi |
| Jan 5, 2024 | 1 | 12:06 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 17, 2023 | 3 | 06:14 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 17, 2023 | 2 | 11:33 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 17, 2023 | 1 | 12:38 | Offensive | Jesperi Kotkaniemi |
| Dec 17, 2023 | 1 | 12:28 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |