Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Kotkaniemi on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kotkaniemi 48.6% vs Dowd 49.1% (-1.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kotkaniemi 84.7%
Defensive zone
Dowd 85.7%
Neutral zone
Dowd 55.9%
Result
Jesperi Kotkaniemi favored at 50.9%
50.9%
49.1%
Kotkaniemi
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Kotkaniemi
Dowd
Last 6: Kotkaniemi 4-2 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kotkaniemi
1
0
Kotkaniemi
Dowd
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kotkaniemi
3
2
Kotkaniemi
Dowd
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kotkaniemi
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
47.3% (207)
51.7% (644)
-4.4%
Power Play
100.0% (3)
0.0% (2)
+100.0%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (3)
41.6% (221)
-8.3%
On power play, Kotkaniemi has a +100.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Kotkaniemi is 50.5% vs right-shot opponents (97).
Kotkaniemi shoots left. Dowd is 47.7% vs left-shot opponents (547).
Home / Away
Kotkaniemi
Dowd
Home
46.5% (129)
48.6% (451)
Away
50.0% (84)
49.5% (416)
By Period
Kotkaniemi
Dowd
P1
51.3%
49.1%
P2
46.1%
47.3%
P3
45.9%
51.4%
Final 5 min
48.2%
52.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kotkaniemi
52.0%▲
49.0%
47.9%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
49.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11, 2025 | 3 | 05:46 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 3 | 03:54 | Neutral | Jesperi Kotkaniemi |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 3 | 00:44 | Offensive | Jesperi Kotkaniemi |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 2 | 15:45 | Neutral | Jesperi Kotkaniemi |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 2 | 15:32 | Neutral | Jesperi Kotkaniemi |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 2 | 15:24 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |