Scouting Report
Jesperi Kotkaniemi holds a +3.0% FO% edge overall. Kotkaniemi wins 45.7% vs left-shot opponents — Cates shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kotkaniemi 48.6% vs Cates 45.5% (+3.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kotkaniemi 68.1%
Defensive zone
Kotkaniemi 55.5%
Neutral zone
Kotkaniemi 51.4%
Result
Jesperi Kotkaniemi favored at 55.5%
55.5%
44.5%
Kotkaniemi
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Kotkaniemi
Cates
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kotkaniemi
1
0
Kotkaniemi
Cates
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kotkaniemi
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
47.3% (207)
45.4% (712)
+1.9%
Power Play
100.0% (3)
42.2% (102)
+57.8%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (3)
44.7% (47)
-11.4%
On power play, Kotkaniemi has a +57.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Kotkaniemi is 45.7% vs left-shot opponents (116).
Kotkaniemi shoots left. Cates is 43.4% vs left-shot opponents (541).
Home / Away
Kotkaniemi
Cates
Home
46.5% (129)
46.3% (423)
Away
50.0% (84)
43.6% (438)
By Period
Kotkaniemi
Cates
P1
51.3%
46.3%
P2
46.1%
47.1%
P3
45.9%
42.1%
Final 5 min
48.2%
44.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kotkaniemi
52.0%▲
49.0%
47.9%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
44.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2025 | 1 | 02:30 | Defensive | Jesperi Kotkaniemi |