Scouting Report
Jesperi Kotkaniemi holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Kotkaniemi wins 45.3% vs left-shot opponents — Cates shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kotkaniemi 48.7% vs Cates 45.2% (+3.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kotkaniemi 68.1%
Defensive zone
Kotkaniemi 53.4%
Neutral zone
Kotkaniemi 51.6%
Result
Jesperi Kotkaniemi favored at 53.4%
53.4%
46.6%
Kotkaniemi
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Kotkaniemi
Cates
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kotkaniemi
1
0
Kotkaniemi
Cates
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kotkaniemi
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (195)
44.2% (566)
+3.5%
Power Play
100.0% (2)
44.0% (84)
+56.0%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (3)
50.0% (38)
-16.7%
On power play, Kotkaniemi has a +56.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Kotkaniemi is 45.3% vs left-shot opponents (106).
Kotkaniemi shoots left. Cates is 43.5% vs left-shot opponents (437).
Home / Away
Kotkaniemi
Cates
Home
46.8% (126)
45.1% (350)
Away
50.0% (74)
43.8% (338)
By Period
Kotkaniemi
Cates
P1
50.0%
46.8%
P2
47.9%
46.5%
P3
45.6%
40.8%
Final 5 min
47.3%
41.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kotkaniemi
52.0%▲
48.0%
48.0%
Cates
56.0%▲
46.5%
44.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2025 | 1 | 02:30 | Defensive | Jesperi Kotkaniemi |