Scouting Report
Jesperi Kotkaniemi holds a +7.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Cates on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kotkaniemi 51.3% vs Cates 45.8% (+7.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kotkaniemi 56.1%
Defensive zone
Cates 64.2%
Neutral zone
Cates 57.3%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 55.5%
44.5%
55.5%
Kotkaniemi
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Kotkaniemi
Cates
Last 7: Kotkaniemi 3-4 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Kotkaniemi
Cates
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Kotkaniemi
Cates
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cates
1
2
Kotkaniemi
Cates
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kotkaniemi
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (586)
44.3% (271)
+7.4%
Power Play
48.1% (52)
77.8% (18)
-29.7%
Penalty Kill
62.5% (8)
31.7% (41)
+30.8%
On penalty kill, Kotkaniemi has a +30.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Kotkaniemi is 51.6% vs left-shot opponents (463).
Kotkaniemi shoots left. Cates is 42.9% vs left-shot opponents (224).
Home / Away
Kotkaniemi
Cates
Home
49.5% (313)
52.0% (148)
Away
53.5% (333)
38.5% (182)
By Period
Kotkaniemi
Cates
P1
54.5%
42.7%
P2
51.1%
42.9%
P3
49.0%
48.5%
Final 5 min
50.0%
44.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kotkaniemi
52.0%▲
49.0%
51.5%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
44.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2024 | 3 | 02:01 | Defensive | Jesperi Kotkaniemi |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 3 | 01:53 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 2 | 09:34 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 2 | 04:21 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Nov 15, 2023 | 2 | 11:36 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Oct 30, 2023 | 3 | 15:49 | Offensive | Jesperi Kotkaniemi |
| Oct 30, 2023 | 1 | 08:30 | Neutral | Jesperi Kotkaniemi |