Scouting Report
Mark Kastelic holds a +8.5% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Veleno 51.1% vs Kastelic 58.3% (-8.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Veleno 77.6%
Defensive zone
Kastelic 60.8%
Neutral zone
Veleno 57.0%
Result
Joe Veleno favored at 51.0%
51.0%
49.0%
Veleno
Kastelic
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Veleno
Kastelic
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kastelic
0
1
Veleno
Kastelic
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Veleno
Kastelic
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Veleno
Kastelic
Edge
Even Strength
52.9% (272)
61.2% (340)
-8.3%
Penalty Kill
37.9% (29)
56.0% (141)
-18.1%
On penalty kill, Kastelic has a +18.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kastelic shoots right. Veleno is 49.6% vs right-shot opponents (119).
Veleno shoots left. Kastelic is 58.3% vs left-shot opponents (405).
Home / Away
Veleno
Kastelic
Home
49.6% (123)
60.9% (233)
Away
52.8% (178)
59.1% (254)
By Period
Veleno
Kastelic
P1
54.8%
58.6%
P2
49.2%
58.7%
P3
52.6%
63.1%
OT
25.0%
53.8%
Final 5 min
60.3%
67.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Veleno
54.0%▲
52.5%
51.5%
Kastelic
54.0%▼
60.0%
60.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 23, 2025 | 2 | 11:47 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 2 | 16:51 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 2 | 06:36 | Neutral | Joe Veleno |