Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +9.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Ek wins 45.9% vs left-shot opponents — Tavares shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ek 48.8% vs Tavares 57.2% (-9.1%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Ek 68.8%
Defensive zone
Ek 76.1%
Neutral zone
Ek 74.4%
Result
Joel Eriksson Ek favored at 73.2%
73.2%
26.8%
Ek
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
7
(10 meetings)
3
7
Ek
Tavares
Last 10: Ek 3-7 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
2
Ek
Tavares
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
2
Ek
Tavares
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
3
Ek
Tavares
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ek
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
47.2% (815)
58.0% (914)
-10.8%
Power Play
53.8% (266)
57.0% (235)
-3.2%
Penalty Kill
47.8% (180)
57.9% (19)
-10.1%
On even strength, Tavares has a +10.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Ek is 45.9% vs left-shot opponents (860).
Ek shoots left. Tavares is 61.0% vs left-shot opponents (766).
Home / Away
Ek
Tavares
Home
49.9% (693)
57.8% (614)
Away
47.2% (568)
57.8% (554)
By Period
Ek
Tavares
P1
46.2%
58.0%
P2
52.6%
56.9%
P3
46.5%
58.4%
OT
54.9%
57.7%
Final 5 min
44.2%
57.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ek
52.0%▲
46.0%
48.7%
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2026 | 3 | 19:48 | Offensive | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Mar 15, 2026 | 3 | 19:41 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 15, 2026 | 3 | 19:34 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 15, 2026 | 3 | 19:23 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 15, 2026 | 3 | 09:03 | Defensive | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Mar 15, 2026 | 3 | 05:31 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 15, 2026 | 3 | 05:14 | Neutral | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Mar 15, 2026 | 2 | 19:11 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 15, 2026 | 2 | 19:07 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 15, 2026 | 2 | 14:13 | Neutral | John Tavares |