Joel Eriksson Ek vs Nathan MacKinnon
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 8 meetings). Ek wins 56.1% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ek 49.4% vs MacKinnon 50.7% (-1.5%)
H2H factor
MacKinnon leads 16-13 in 29 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 57.4%
Defensive zone
Ek 71.1%
Neutral zone
Ek 55.0%
Result
Joel Eriksson Ek favored at 56.0%
56.0%
44.0%
Ek
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
13
-
16
(29 meetings)
13
16
Ek
MacKinnon
Last 10: Ek 4-6 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
4
4
Ek
MacKinnon
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
8
Ek
MacKinnon
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Ek
9
4
Ek
MacKinnon
13 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ek
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (671)
49.1% (825)
-1.4%
Power Play
54.9% (206)
65.4% (130)
-10.5%
Penalty Kill
49.0% (155)
34.5% (29)
+14.5%
On penalty kill, Ek has a +14.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Ek is 56.1% vs right-shot opponents (314).
Ek shoots left. MacKinnon is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (716).
Home / Away
Ek
MacKinnon
Home
50.3% (565)
52.6% (489)
Away
48.2% (467)
49.1% (495)
By Period
Ek
MacKinnon
P1
47.4%
50.3%
P2
54.3%
52.6%
P3
46.2%
49.2%
OT
51.2%
62.5%
Final 5 min
45.6%
55.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ek
48.0%▬
49.0%
49.3%
MacKinnon
54.0%▬
54.5%
50.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 21, 2025 | 3 | 16:53 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 3 | 16:43 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 3 | 16:35 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 3 | 16:26 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 3 | 15:58 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 2 | 06:01 | Neutral | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 2 | 03:10 | Neutral | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 1 | 16:22 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 1 | 15:48 | Offensive | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 1 | 13:19 | Offensive | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 1 | 03:57 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 1 | 03:53 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 1 | 02:22 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Nov 28, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 3 | 15:26 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 2 | 18:03 | Neutral | Joel Eriksson Ek |