Joel Eriksson Ek vs Nathan MacKinnon
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +2.8% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on defensive-zone draws (89% H2H, 9 meetings). Ek wins 54.6% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ek 48.8% vs MacKinnon 51.3% (-2.8%)
H2H factor
MacKinnon leads 21-15 in 36 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 56.8%
Defensive zone
Ek 71.6%
Neutral zone
Ek 56.1%
Result
Joel Eriksson Ek favored at 55.3%
55.3%
44.7%
Ek
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
15
-
21
(36 meetings)
15
21
Ek
MacKinnon
Last 10: Ek 2-8 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
5
8
Ek
MacKinnon
13 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
8
Ek
MacKinnon
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Ek
9
5
Ek
MacKinnon
14 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ek
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
47.2% (815)
50.0% (992)
-2.8%
Power Play
53.8% (266)
64.9% (148)
-11.1%
Penalty Kill
47.8% (180)
34.4% (32)
+13.4%
On penalty kill, Ek has a +13.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Ek is 54.6% vs right-shot opponents (401).
Ek shoots left. MacKinnon is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (839).
Home / Away
Ek
MacKinnon
Home
49.9% (693)
53.3% (591)
Away
47.2% (568)
49.6% (581)
By Period
Ek
MacKinnon
P1
46.2%
49.9%
P2
52.6%
53.2%
P3
46.5%
50.8%
OT
54.9%
66.7%
Final 5 min
44.2%
56.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ek
52.0%▲
46.0%
48.7%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
51.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2026 | 2 | 11:42 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 3 | 19:03 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 3 | 13:25 | Defensive | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 3 | 11:06 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 2 | 13:40 | Offensive | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 1 | 03:26 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 1 | 00:17 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 3 | 16:53 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 3 | 16:43 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 3 | 16:35 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 3 | 16:26 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 3 | 15:58 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 2 | 06:01 | Neutral | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 2 | 03:10 | Neutral | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 1 | 16:22 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 1 | 15:48 | Offensive | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 1 | 13:19 | Offensive | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 1 | 03:57 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |