Joel Eriksson Ek vs Nathan MacKinnon
2024-25 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +2.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Ek on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Ek wins 46.5% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ek 47.4% vs MacKinnon 49.9% (-2.8%)
H2H factor
Ek leads 11-5 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 72.8%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 52.5%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 59.1%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 63.0%
37.0%
63.0%
Ek
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
5
(16 meetings)
11
5
Ek
MacKinnon
Last 10: Ek 8-2 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
2
5
Ek
MacKinnon
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ek
5
0
Ek
MacKinnon
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Ek
4
0
Ek
MacKinnon
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ek
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
47.6% (609)
49.2% (1,266)
-1.6%
Power Play
53.3% (152)
54.9% (193)
-1.6%
Penalty Kill
34.9% (106)
49.1% (55)
-14.2%
On penalty kill, MacKinnon has a +14.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Ek is 46.5% vs right-shot opponents (254).
Ek shoots left. MacKinnon is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,100).
Home / Away
Ek
MacKinnon
Home
49.2% (331)
50.9% (740)
Away
45.7% (536)
49.0% (774)
By Period
Ek
MacKinnon
P1
38.7%
50.9%
P2
52.9%
51.8%
P3
48.8%
47.1%
OT
42.9%
58.8%
Final 5 min
46.2%
51.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ek
52.0%▲
46.0%
47.1%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 20, 2025 | 3 | 16:33 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 20, 2025 | 3 | 10:44 | Offensive | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Jan 20, 2025 | 3 | 08:37 | Defensive | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Jan 20, 2025 | 3 | 02:08 | Neutral | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Jan 20, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Jan 20, 2025 | 2 | 19:33 | Neutral | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Jan 20, 2025 | 2 | 07:38 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 20, 2025 | 2 | 07:30 | Defensive | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Jan 20, 2025 | 2 | 07:13 | Defensive | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Jan 20, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Jan 20, 2025 | 1 | 14:24 | Defensive | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Jan 9, 2025 | 3 | 11:48 | Offensive | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Jan 9, 2025 | 2 | 16:13 | Defensive | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Jan 9, 2025 | 2 | 03:41 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 9, 2025 | 2 | 03:32 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 9, 2025 | 1 | 00:42 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |