Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +8.7% FO% edge overall. Farabee wins 40.6% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Farabee 44.4% vs MacKinnon 46.5% (-8.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Farabee 65.2%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 70.9%
Neutral zone
Farabee 50.8%
Result
Joel Farabee favored at 50.8%
50.8%
49.2%
Farabee
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Farabee
MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
1
Farabee
MacKinnon
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Farabee
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
31.1% (61)
45.5% (1,190)
-14.4%
Power Play
57.9% (19)
56.4% (94)
+1.5%
On even strength, MacKinnon has a +14.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Farabee is 40.6% vs right-shot opponents (32).
Farabee shoots left. MacKinnon is 45.7% vs left-shot opponents (905).
Home / Away
Farabee
MacKinnon
Home
37.2% (43)
47.8% (670)
Away
37.8% (37)
44.6% (644)
By Period
Farabee
MacKinnon
P1
41.2%
45.3%
P2
34.6%
48.5%
P3
35.0%
45.0%
Final 5 min
52.9%
47.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Farabee
44.0%▲
38.5%
37.5%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 9, 2023 | 1 | 03:15 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |