Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +8.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Tavares wins 61.0% vs left-shot opponents — Norris shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 57.2% vs Norris 49.7% (+8.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 86.9%
Defensive zone
Tavares 64.4%
Neutral zone
Tavares 86.8%
Result
John Tavares favored at 70.0%
70.0%
30.0%
Tavares
Norris
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
0
(4 meetings)
4
0
Tavares
Norris
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
0
Tavares
Norris
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
3
0
Tavares
Norris
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Norris
Edge
Even Strength
58.0% (914)
50.0% (356)
+8.0%
Power Play
57.0% (235)
48.7% (76)
+8.3%
Penalty Kill
57.9% (19)
42.9% (7)
+15.0%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +15.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Norris shoots left. Tavares is 61.0% vs left-shot opponents (766).
Tavares shoots left. Norris is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (294).
Home / Away
Tavares
Norris
Home
57.8% (614)
47.2% (193)
Away
57.8% (554)
51.6% (246)
By Period
Tavares
Norris
P1
58.0%
53.8%
P2
56.9%
48.2%
P3
58.4%
47.9%
OT
57.7%
0.0%
Final 5 min
57.8%
45.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
57.8%
Norris
52.0%▲
50.5%
49.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 15:28 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 03:40 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 00:22 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 18:37 | Defensive | John Tavares |