Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (58.3% vs 57.9%). Tavares wins 61.6% vs left-shot opponents — Norris shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 57.7% vs Norris 52.9% (+0.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 77.5%
Defensive zone
Norris 70.2%
Neutral zone
Norris 53.4%
Result
Josh Norris favored at 61.8%
38.2%
61.8%
Tavares
Norris
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Tavares
Norris
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Norris
0
1
Tavares
Norris
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
0
Tavares
Norris
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Norris
Edge
Even Strength
57.5% (914)
63.9% (36)
-6.4%
Power Play
60.5% (309)
50.0% (2)
+10.5%
Penalty Kill
59.1% (22)
47.4% (19)
+11.7%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +11.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Norris shoots left. Tavares is 61.6% vs left-shot opponents (774).
Tavares shoots left. Norris is 61.9% vs left-shot opponents (21).
Home / Away
Tavares
Norris
Home
61.0% (661)
62.2% (37)
Away
55.3% (584)
50.0% (20)
By Period
Tavares
Norris
P1
58.6%
64.3%
P2
57.8%
59.1%
P3
58.4%
52.4%
Final 5 min
63.4%
42.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
58.3%
Norris
52.0%▲
50.5%
57.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2022 | 3 | 13:03 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 2 | 07:28 | Defensive | Josh Norris |