Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +9.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Tavares wins 62.7% vs left-shot opponents — Norris shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 59.8% vs Norris 51.0% (+9.5%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 7-6 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 74.5%
Defensive zone
Norris 53.0%
Neutral zone
Tavares 60.8%
Result
John Tavares favored at 60.8%
60.8%
39.2%
Tavares
Norris
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
6
(13 meetings)
7
6
Tavares
Norris
Last 10: Tavares 6-4 Norris
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
3
2
Tavares
Norris
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
3
2
Tavares
Norris
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Norris
1
2
Tavares
Norris
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Norris
Edge
Even Strength
60.9% (1,043)
51.2% (886)
+9.7%
Power Play
60.4% (278)
59.0% (83)
+1.4%
Penalty Kill
47.6% (21)
38.8% (67)
+8.8%
On even strength, Tavares has a +9.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Norris shoots left. Tavares is 62.7% vs left-shot opponents (831).
Tavares shoots left. Norris is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (666).
Home / Away
Tavares
Norris
Home
63.5% (684)
55.6% (487)
Away
57.6% (658)
47.0% (549)
By Period
Tavares
Norris
P1
60.3%
54.8%
P2
60.4%
51.3%
P3
60.1%
48.0%
OT
92.3%
33.3%
Final 5 min
57.4%
54.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
60.6%
Norris
52.0%▲
50.5%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16, 2022 | OT | 02:55 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Apr 16, 2022 | 3 | 01:09 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Apr 16, 2022 | 2 | 11:21 | Neutral | Josh Norris |
| Apr 16, 2022 | 2 | 09:00 | Offensive | Josh Norris |
| Apr 16, 2022 | 1 | 15:04 | Defensive | Josh Norris |
| Apr 16, 2022 | 1 | 12:17 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 16, 2021 | 3 | 18:43 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Oct 16, 2021 | 3 | 06:41 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 16, 2021 | 2 | 16:45 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 16, 2021 | 1 | 14:17 | Offensive | Josh Norris |
| Oct 16, 2021 | 1 | 08:14 | Defensive | Josh Norris |
| Oct 16, 2021 | 1 | 08:06 | Neutral | Josh Norris |
| Oct 14, 2021 | 1 | 17:08 | Offensive | John Tavares |