Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +4.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Tavares wins 59.5% vs left-shot opponents — Norris shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 57.7% vs Norris 53.4% (+4.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 81.1%
Defensive zone
Norris 54.5%
Neutral zone
Tavares 66.6%
Result
John Tavares favored at 62.7%
62.7%
37.3%
Tavares
Norris
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Tavares
Norris
Last 7: Tavares 5-2 Norris
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
0
Tavares
Norris
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Tavares
Norris
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
3
1
Tavares
Norris
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Norris
Edge
Even Strength
57.7% (998)
53.6% (560)
+4.1%
Power Play
60.5% (271)
56.0% (109)
+4.5%
Penalty Kill
56.4% (39)
53.1% (98)
+3.3%
On power play, Tavares has a +4.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Norris shoots left. Tavares is 59.5% vs left-shot opponents (818).
Tavares shoots left. Norris is 54.4% vs left-shot opponents (471).
Home / Away
Tavares
Norris
Home
59.7% (610)
53.6% (373)
Away
57.0% (698)
54.1% (394)
By Period
Tavares
Norris
P1
57.2%
61.8%
P2
58.5%
51.7%
P3
59.4%
49.8%
OT
46.7%
27.3%
Final 5 min
57.0%
55.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
58.3%
Norris
52.0%▲
50.5%
53.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12, 2024 | 3 | 01:04 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 12, 2024 | 2 | 12:51 | Neutral | Josh Norris |
| Nov 12, 2024 | 2 | 09:43 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 12, 2024 | 2 | 03:12 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 12, 2024 | 1 | 16:34 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 12, 2024 | 1 | 00:10 | Defensive | Josh Norris |
| Nov 12, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |