Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on neutral-zone draws (69% H2H, 26 meetings). Tavares wins 56.3% vs left-shot opponents — Norris shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 54.4% vs Norris 52.1% (+2.3%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 42-26 in 68 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 83.6%
Defensive zone
Norris 53.3%
Neutral zone
Tavares 63.3%
Result
John Tavares favored at 63.9%
63.9%
36.1%
Tavares
Norris
Head-to-Head Record
42
-
26
(68 meetings)
42
26
Tavares
Norris
Last 10: Tavares 8-2 Norris
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
14
6
Tavares
Norris
20 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Norris
10
12
Tavares
Norris
22 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
18
8
Tavares
Norris
26 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Norris
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (16,108)
52.5% (3,057)
+1.5%
Power Play
56.5% (4,283)
53.7% (404)
+2.8%
Penalty Kill
50.6% (620)
45.4% (240)
+5.2%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +5.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Norris shoots left. Tavares is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (13,505).
Tavares shoots left. Norris is 51.3% vs left-shot opponents (2,392).
Home / Away
Tavares
Norris
Home
56.1% (10,503)
53.1% (1,856)
Away
52.7% (10,537)
51.2% (1,845)
By Period
Tavares
Norris
P1
55.0%
55.6%
P2
54.1%
51.4%
P3
54.1%
50.1%
OT
55.9%
40.5%
Final 5 min
54.8%
53.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
54.4%
Norris
52.0%▲
50.5%
52.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 15:28 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 03:40 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 00:22 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 18:37 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 12, 2024 | 3 | 01:04 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 12, 2024 | 2 | 12:51 | Neutral | Josh Norris |
| Nov 12, 2024 | 2 | 09:43 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 12, 2024 | 2 | 03:12 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 12, 2024 | 1 | 16:34 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 12, 2024 | 1 | 00:10 | Defensive | Josh Norris |
| Nov 12, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 3 | 09:35 | Offensive | Josh Norris |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 3 | 03:24 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 2 | 00:42 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 1 | 03:45 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 3 | 19:56 | Defensive | Josh Norris |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 3 | 18:19 | Defensive | Josh Norris |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 3 | 07:48 | Defensive | Josh Norris |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 3 | 03:44 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 1 | 07:47 | Offensive | John Tavares |