Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +22.0% FO% edge overall. Tavares wins 61.0% vs left-shot opponents — Hayes shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 57.2% vs Hayes 42.7% (+22.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 91.8%
Defensive zone
Tavares 87.5%
Neutral zone
Tavares 88.7%
Result
John Tavares favored at 90.4%
90.4%
9.6%
Tavares
Hayes
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
0
(3 meetings)
3
0
Tavares
Hayes
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
0
Tavares
Hayes
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
0
Tavares
Hayes
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Hayes
Edge
Even Strength
58.0% (914)
31.9% (91)
+26.1%
Power Play
57.0% (235)
64.3% (14)
-7.3%
Penalty Kill
57.9% (19)
0.0% (1)
+57.9%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +57.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hayes shoots left. Tavares is 61.0% vs left-shot opponents (766).
Tavares shoots left. Hayes is 39.7% vs left-shot opponents (58).
Home / Away
Tavares
Hayes
Home
57.8% (614)
30.6% (49)
Away
57.8% (554)
40.4% (57)
By Period
Tavares
Hayes
P1
58.0%
22.9%
P2
56.9%
40.0%
P3
58.4%
44.4%
Final 5 min
57.8%
30.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
57.8%
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
35.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 23, 2025 | 2 | 06:10 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 1 | 11:39 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 2 | 03:36 | Defensive | John Tavares |