Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. Tavares wins 61.3% vs left-shot opponents — Hayes shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 58.7% vs Hayes 56.3% (+2.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 84.0%
Defensive zone
Hayes 56.9%
Neutral zone
Tavares 59.1%
Result
John Tavares favored at 51.1%
51.1%
48.9%
Tavares
Hayes
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
Tavares
Hayes
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
0
Tavares
Hayes
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
0
Tavares
Hayes
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Hayes
Edge
Even Strength
59.2% (1,035)
56.6% (724)
+2.6%
Power Play
60.0% (310)
57.0% (79)
+3.0%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (7)
65.7% (35)
-22.8%
On penalty kill, Hayes has a +22.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hayes shoots left. Tavares is 61.3% vs left-shot opponents (865).
Tavares shoots left. Hayes is 57.9% vs left-shot opponents (587).
Home / Away
Tavares
Hayes
Home
57.5% (668)
58.0% (405)
Away
61.1% (684)
56.1% (433)
By Period
Tavares
Hayes
P1
58.0%
54.7%
P2
60.1%
55.7%
P3
61.0%
60.2%
OT
27.8%
50.0%
Final 5 min
60.7%
58.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
59.3%
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
57.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 19, 2024 | 3 | 19:22 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Feb 19, 2024 | 3 | 14:51 | Defensive | John Tavares |