Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +8.9% FO% edge overall. Tavares wins 61.6% vs left-shot opponents — Hayes shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 57.7% vs Hayes 49.5% (+8.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hayes 76.7%
Defensive zone
Hayes 69.9%
Neutral zone
Hayes 77.1%
Result
Kevin Hayes favored at 76.9%
23.1%
76.9%
Tavares
Hayes
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
3
(3 meetings)
0
3
Tavares
Hayes
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
0
2
Tavares
Hayes
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hayes
0
1
Tavares
Hayes
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Hayes
Edge
Even Strength
57.5% (914)
48.5% (557)
+9.0%
Power Play
60.5% (309)
53.3% (107)
+7.2%
Penalty Kill
59.1% (22)
58.3% (12)
+0.8%
On even strength, Tavares has a +9.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hayes shoots left. Tavares is 61.6% vs left-shot opponents (774).
Tavares shoots left. Hayes is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (439).
Home / Away
Tavares
Hayes
Home
61.0% (661)
50.8% (313)
Away
55.3% (584)
48.2% (363)
By Period
Tavares
Hayes
P1
58.6%
52.3%
P2
57.8%
47.7%
P3
58.4%
48.4%
OT
66.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
63.4%
50.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
58.3%
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
49.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 8, 2023 | 3 | 06:33 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 22, 2022 | 3 | 05:08 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 2, 2022 | 3 | 02:49 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |