Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +6.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (59% H2H, 49 meetings). Tavares wins 56.3% vs left-shot opponents — Hayes shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 54.4% vs Hayes 47.7% (+6.7%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 59-43 in 102 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 92.5%
Defensive zone
Tavares 70.0%
Neutral zone
Tavares 87.1%
Result
John Tavares favored at 85.8%
85.8%
14.2%
Tavares
Hayes
Head-to-Head Record
59
-
43
(102 meetings)
59
43
Tavares
Hayes
Last 10: Tavares 7-3 Hayes
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
29
20
Tavares
Hayes
49 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
13
10
Tavares
Hayes
23 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
17
13
Tavares
Hayes
30 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Hayes
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (16,108)
47.5% (6,708)
+6.5%
Power Play
56.5% (4,283)
51.7% (702)
+4.8%
Penalty Kill
50.6% (620)
45.3% (697)
+5.3%
On even strength, Tavares has a +6.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hayes shoots left. Tavares is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (13,505).
Tavares shoots left. Hayes is 48.5% vs left-shot opponents (5,132).
Home / Away
Tavares
Hayes
Home
56.1% (10,503)
48.1% (3,982)
Away
52.7% (10,537)
47.3% (4,125)
By Period
Tavares
Hayes
P1
55.0%
47.5%
P2
54.1%
47.6%
P3
54.1%
47.9%
OT
55.9%
54.1%
Final 5 min
54.8%
49.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
54.4%
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
47.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 23, 2025 | 2 | 06:10 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 1 | 11:39 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 2 | 03:36 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 19, 2024 | 3 | 19:22 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Feb 19, 2024 | 3 | 14:51 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 8, 2023 | 3 | 06:33 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 22, 2022 | 3 | 05:08 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 2, 2022 | 3 | 02:49 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Apr 19, 2022 | 2 | 09:19 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Apr 19, 2022 | 2 | 02:50 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Apr 19, 2022 | 1 | 10:51 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Apr 19, 2022 | 1 | 10:48 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 3 | 12:23 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 2 | 05:41 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 3, 2019 | 3 | 07:21 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 9, 2019 | 3 | 03:11 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 9, 2019 | 3 | 03:00 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 9, 2019 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 9, 2019 | 2 | 18:30 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 9, 2019 | 2 | 15:50 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |