Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +17.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Tavares wins 62.7% vs left-shot opponents — Hayes shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 59.8% vs Hayes 43.8% (+17.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 94.6%
Defensive zone
Tavares 83.0%
Neutral zone
Tavares 91.1%
Result
John Tavares favored at 92.1%
92.1%
7.9%
Tavares
Hayes
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Tavares
Hayes
Last 6: Tavares 5-1 Hayes
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
3
1
Tavares
Hayes
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
0
Tavares
Hayes
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
0
Tavares
Hayes
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Hayes
Edge
Even Strength
60.9% (1,043)
42.7% (478)
+18.2%
Power Play
60.4% (278)
42.9% (98)
+17.5%
Penalty Kill
47.6% (21)
45.2% (31)
+2.4%
On even strength, Tavares has a +18.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hayes shoots left. Tavares is 62.7% vs left-shot opponents (831).
Tavares shoots left. Hayes is 42.5% vs left-shot opponents (388).
Home / Away
Tavares
Hayes
Home
63.5% (684)
43.5% (232)
Away
57.6% (658)
42.4% (375)
By Period
Tavares
Hayes
P1
60.3%
40.1%
P2
60.4%
44.8%
P3
60.1%
42.4%
OT
92.3%
80.0%
Final 5 min
57.4%
44.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
60.6%
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
42.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 19, 2022 | 2 | 09:19 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Apr 19, 2022 | 2 | 02:50 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Apr 19, 2022 | 1 | 10:51 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Apr 19, 2022 | 1 | 10:48 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 3 | 12:23 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 2 | 05:41 | Offensive | John Tavares |