Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +15.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Hayes on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Tavares wins 53.3% vs left-shot opponents — Hayes shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 52.1% vs Hayes 38.0% (+15.9%)
H2H factor
Hayes leads 8-3 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Hayes 72.0%
Defensive zone
Hayes 75.3%
Neutral zone
Hayes 75.8%
Result
Kevin Hayes favored at 74.3%
25.7%
74.3%
Tavares
Hayes
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
8
(11 meetings)
3
8
Tavares
Hayes
Last 10: Tavares 3-7 Hayes
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Tavares
Hayes
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
1
2
Tavares
Hayes
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hayes
0
4
Tavares
Hayes
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Hayes
Edge
Even Strength
52.4% (1,121)
37.1% (642)
+15.3%
Power Play
51.3% (304)
32.1% (28)
+19.2%
Penalty Kill
58.8% (17)
0.0% (11)
+58.8%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +58.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hayes shoots left. Tavares is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (911).
Tavares shoots left. Hayes is 38.2% vs left-shot opponents (419).
Home / Away
Tavares
Hayes
Home
56.5% (731)
36.7% (354)
Away
47.8% (711)
35.8% (327)
By Period
Tavares
Hayes
P1
56.1%
33.6%
P2
50.3%
38.3%
P3
50.5%
37.0%
Final 5 min
51.5%
39.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
52.2%
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
36.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10, 2015 | 2 | 17:52 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 10, 2015 | 2 | 11:35 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 10, 2015 | 2 | 01:37 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Feb 16, 2015 | 2 | 03:07 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Feb 16, 2015 | 1 | 11:46 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Jan 13, 2015 | 3 | 04:13 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 13, 2015 | 2 | 03:22 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Oct 14, 2014 | 3 | 17:12 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 14, 2014 | 2 | 09:48 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Oct 14, 2014 | 1 | 03:13 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 14, 2014 | 1 | 02:52 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |