Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +4.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Eller on defensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings). Tavares wins 61.6% vs left-shot opponents — Eller shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 57.7% vs Eller 53.3% (+4.6%)
H2H factor
Eller leads 14-11 in 25 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 72.3%
Defensive zone
Eller 83.9%
Neutral zone
Eller 57.8%
Result
Lars Eller favored at 55.5%
44.5%
55.5%
Tavares
Eller
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
14
(25 meetings)
11
14
Tavares
Eller
Last 10: Tavares 5-5 Eller
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
6
2
Tavares
Eller
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Eller
1
6
Tavares
Eller
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Eller
4
6
Tavares
Eller
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Eller
Edge
Even Strength
57.5% (914)
53.8% (865)
+3.7%
Power Play
60.5% (309)
57.1% (21)
+3.4%
Penalty Kill
59.1% (22)
52.6% (137)
+6.5%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +6.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Eller shoots left. Tavares is 61.6% vs left-shot opponents (774).
Tavares shoots left. Eller is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (682).
Home / Away
Tavares
Eller
Home
61.0% (661)
56.4% (486)
Away
55.3% (584)
51.2% (537)
By Period
Tavares
Eller
P1
58.6%
55.1%
P2
57.8%
55.3%
P3
58.4%
51.7%
OT
66.7%
27.3%
Final 5 min
63.4%
51.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
58.3%
Eller
50.0%▼
54.0%
53.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2023 | 3 | 08:52 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Mar 15, 2023 | 2 | 04:21 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Mar 15, 2023 | 1 | 14:23 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 15, 2023 | 1 | 14:08 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Jan 29, 2023 | 3 | 06:37 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Jan 29, 2023 | 3 | 00:13 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 29, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Jan 29, 2023 | 2 | 00:41 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 29, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Jan 29, 2023 | 1 | 17:17 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Jan 29, 2023 | 1 | 11:35 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Jan 29, 2023 | 1 | 00:06 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Jan 29, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Dec 17, 2022 | 3 | 07:57 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Dec 17, 2022 | 3 | 00:10 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Dec 17, 2022 | 2 | 12:22 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Dec 17, 2022 | 2 | 12:14 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 17, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Dec 17, 2022 | 1 | 18:33 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Dec 17, 2022 | 1 | 14:48 | Neutral | Lars Eller |