Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (57.8% vs 56.9%). Tavares wins 61.0% vs left-shot opponents — Eller shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 57.2% vs Eller 55.7% (+0.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 69.2%
Defensive zone
Eller 78.6%
Neutral zone
Eller 55.2%
Result
Lars Eller favored at 54.7%
45.3%
54.7%
Tavares
Eller
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Tavares
Eller
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Tavares
Eller
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Eller
0
2
Tavares
Eller
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Eller
Edge
Even Strength
58.0% (914)
56.5% (434)
+1.5%
Power Play
57.0% (235)
77.8% (9)
-20.8%
Penalty Kill
57.9% (19)
56.5% (46)
+1.4%
On power play, Eller has a +20.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Eller shoots left. Tavares is 61.0% vs left-shot opponents (766).
Tavares shoots left. Eller is 57.0% vs left-shot opponents (302).
Home / Away
Tavares
Eller
Home
57.8% (614)
53.1% (211)
Away
57.8% (554)
59.7% (278)
By Period
Tavares
Eller
P1
58.0%
55.4%
P2
56.9%
58.1%
P3
58.4%
57.1%
Final 5 min
57.8%
60.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
57.8%
Eller
50.0%▼
54.0%
56.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | 2 | 19:01 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 2 | 13:00 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 2 | 06:34 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 3 | 07:35 | Defensive | Lars Eller |