Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +3.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Draisaitl on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Tavares wins 61.6% vs left-shot opponents — Draisaitl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 57.7% vs Draisaitl 54.6% (+3.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Draisaitl 52.6%
Defensive zone
Draisaitl 61.8%
Neutral zone
Draisaitl 55.2%
Result
Leon Draisaitl favored at 58.2%
41.8%
58.2%
Tavares
Draisaitl
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Tavares
Draisaitl
Last 8: Tavares 3-5 Draisaitl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
0
Tavares
Draisaitl
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Draisaitl
1
3
Tavares
Draisaitl
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Draisaitl
1
2
Tavares
Draisaitl
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Draisaitl
Edge
Even Strength
57.5% (914)
52.4% (974)
+5.1%
Power Play
60.5% (309)
59.5% (373)
+1.0%
Penalty Kill
59.1% (22)
61.0% (123)
-1.9%
On even strength, Tavares has a +5.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Draisaitl shoots left. Tavares is 61.6% vs left-shot opponents (774).
Tavares shoots left. Draisaitl is 53.5% vs left-shot opponents (950).
Home / Away
Tavares
Draisaitl
Home
61.0% (661)
54.5% (778)
Away
55.3% (584)
55.3% (692)
By Period
Tavares
Draisaitl
P1
58.6%
54.6%
P2
57.8%
56.1%
P3
58.4%
53.3%
OT
66.7%
66.7%
Final 5 min
63.4%
52.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
58.3%
Draisaitl
62.0%▬
61.0%
54.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11, 2023 | 3 | 07:59 | Neutral | Leon Draisaitl |
| Mar 11, 2023 | 2 | 19:32 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 11, 2023 | 2 | 14:49 | Neutral | Leon Draisaitl |
| Mar 11, 2023 | 2 | 11:23 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 11, 2023 | 1 | 11:50 | Defensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Mar 11, 2023 | 1 | 11:37 | Defensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Mar 11, 2023 | 1 | 11:24 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 11, 2023 | 1 | 08:15 | Defensive | Leon Draisaitl |