Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 52 meetings). Tavares wins 56.3% vs left-shot opponents — Draisaitl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 54.4% vs Draisaitl 53.3% (+1.1%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 87-68 in 155 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 57.0%
Defensive zone
Draisaitl 54.9%
Neutral zone
Tavares 51.3%
Result
John Tavares favored at 50.9%
50.9%
49.1%
Tavares
Draisaitl
Head-to-Head Record
87
-
68
(155 meetings)
87
68
Tavares
Draisaitl
Last 10: Tavares 3-7 Draisaitl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
31
21
Tavares
Draisaitl
52 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
31
27
Tavares
Draisaitl
58 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
25
20
Tavares
Draisaitl
45 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Draisaitl
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (16,108)
52.9% (10,240)
+1.1%
Power Play
56.5% (4,283)
55.7% (2,827)
+0.8%
Penalty Kill
50.6% (620)
51.2% (977)
-0.6%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Draisaitl shoots left. Tavares is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (13,505).
Tavares shoots left. Draisaitl is 51.6% vs left-shot opponents (8,946).
Home / Away
Tavares
Draisaitl
Home
56.1% (10,503)
54.6% (7,049)
Away
52.7% (10,537)
52.0% (6,995)
By Period
Tavares
Draisaitl
P1
55.0%
52.7%
P2
54.1%
53.6%
P3
54.1%
53.4%
OT
55.9%
57.0%
Final 5 min
54.8%
52.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
54.4%
Draisaitl
62.0%▬
61.0%
53.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 3, 2026 | 3 | 06:38 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 1 | 14:10 | Defensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 1 | 04:20 | Defensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 1 | 01:17 | Defensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 1 | 01:03 | Defensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 3 | 01:29 | Defensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 3 | 01:21 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 3 | 01:13 | Offensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 04:54 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 1 | 16:03 | Neutral | Leon Draisaitl |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 1 | 12:52 | Offensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 1 | 12:40 | Neutral | Leon Draisaitl |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 1 | 06:51 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 1 | 06:43 | Offensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Feb 1, 2025 | 2 | 19:41 | Offensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Feb 1, 2025 | 2 | 15:22 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 1, 2025 | 2 | 13:21 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 16, 2024 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Leon Draisaitl |
| Nov 16, 2024 | 3 | 19:56 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 16, 2024 | 3 | 19:46 | Offensive | Leon Draisaitl |