Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +4.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Draisaitl on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Tavares wins 59.5% vs left-shot opponents — Draisaitl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 57.7% vs Draisaitl 54.0% (+4.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Draisaitl 69.0%
Defensive zone
Tavares 67.3%
Neutral zone
Draisaitl 53.8%
Result
Leon Draisaitl favored at 51.3%
48.7%
51.3%
Tavares
Draisaitl
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Tavares
Draisaitl
Last 7: Tavares 3-4 Draisaitl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Draisaitl
0
3
Tavares
Draisaitl
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
3
0
Tavares
Draisaitl
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Draisaitl
0
1
Tavares
Draisaitl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Draisaitl
Edge
Even Strength
57.7% (998)
53.7% (923)
+4.0%
Power Play
60.5% (271)
56.1% (244)
+4.4%
Penalty Kill
56.4% (39)
58.6% (29)
-2.2%
On power play, Tavares has a +4.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Draisaitl shoots left. Tavares is 59.5% vs left-shot opponents (818).
Tavares shoots left. Draisaitl is 51.9% vs left-shot opponents (797).
Home / Away
Tavares
Draisaitl
Home
59.7% (610)
55.2% (636)
Away
57.0% (698)
53.4% (560)
By Period
Tavares
Draisaitl
P1
57.2%
50.8%
P2
58.5%
56.6%
P3
59.4%
54.0%
OT
46.7%
67.9%
Final 5 min
57.0%
53.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
58.3%
Draisaitl
62.0%▬
61.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2025 | 2 | 19:41 | Offensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Feb 1, 2025 | 2 | 15:22 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 1, 2025 | 2 | 13:21 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 16, 2024 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Leon Draisaitl |
| Nov 16, 2024 | 3 | 19:56 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 16, 2024 | 3 | 19:46 | Offensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Nov 16, 2024 | 3 | 14:54 | Offensive | Leon Draisaitl |